Climate Change, Water, and the Future of San Miguel
This is the fourth in a month-long series bringing you different stories regarding the urban side of our water crisis through the lens of the people who are living it here in San Miguel.
We recently spoke extensively with Fabián Trejo, Technical Advisor in Tourism and Climate Change for the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ, by its acronym in German), a federal enterprise that directly supports the German Government’s objectives specifically related to international cooperation for sustainable development. Over the last several years, Trejo and GIZ have been working in San Miguel de Allende through their initiative – Adaptur, which seeks to promote natural solutions for climate change adaptation in the tourism sector. San Miguel was one of three pilot destinations selected by GIZ throughout Mexico, along with the Riviera Maya and Riviera Nayarit-Puerto Vallarta. All three sites were chosen due to their social, economic, and environmental relevance for the tourism sector and the unique challenges they face in relation to the potential impacts of climate change.
Photo: Fabián Trejo, Technical Advisor in Tourism and Climate Change for GIZ Mexico.
Our Water Crisis and Climate Change
The Upper Río Laja Watershed stretches across seven municipalities in the northern part of Guanajuato State and includes San Miguel de Allende and more than 2,800 urban and rural communities. Our watershed is not only severely impacted by the overexploitation of our finite groundwater resources by the agro-exporting industry, but it is also increasingly threatened by climate change, which is directly connected to the disruption of water cycles in our region. As such, the increasing temperature in the region has created a considerable decrease in annual precipitation, making the rainy season shorter and the dry season longer. When the rain finally does fall, it tends to do so for shorter periods of time. In general, we can expect fewer, but often much more intense, rain events in the years to come due to climate change.
These kinds of disruptions are exacerbating the water scarcity issues in our region. Further, the dryer it gets, the deeper we are forced to drill our wells in order to reach the water necessary for daily life. At these depths, water is increasingly contaminated with ancient “fossil” water, which is rich in naturally-occurring chemicals such as arsenic and fluoride. Arsenic and fluoride are related to a host of health effects when consumed over extended periods of time. Most of which are chronic and irreversible, such as: dental and skeletal fluorosis (teeth become stained brown and bones become brittle and deformed), chronic kidney disease, skin lesions, cognitive developmental issues in children, and several types of cancer.
In the following interview, edited for brevity and clarity, we talk with Fabián Trejo – Technical Advisor in Tourism and Climate Change for GIZ Mexico. Trejo has lived in and out of San Miguel de Allende for several years and is deeply involved in understanding the urban dynamics of the city, climate change, and the ways in which we can start mitigating this crisis.
Photo: According to the National Water Commission the Presa Allende (Allende Reservoir) is at 15% of its total water containment capacity. Below, an image comparison is offered in order to contrast between the reservoir’s water levels in 2011 and its current 2021 levels.(Move the dividing line to the left or right to compare).
Interview: Climate Change, Water Cycles, and San Miguel de Allende
Q: Would you introduce yourself, your work at GIZ Mexico, and the program Adaptur?
I am Fabián Trejo, technical advisor in tourism and climate change. I collaborate in Adaptur program (Adaptation to climate change for private sector, focused on the tourism sector), of the German Cooperation for Sustainable Development (GIZ, by its acronym in German) in Mexico. This program aims to: reduce the risk of tourism businesses in the face of climate change impacts, protect natural capital and promote Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) measures. Adaptur has three pilot destinations in Mexico, which are Riviera Maya, Riviera Nayarit-Puerto Vallarta, and San Miguel de Allende (SMA).
Q: What is GIZ and how is it related to sustainable development in Mexico?
GIZ is the international cooperation agency of the German government. It collaborates with more than 120 countries with about 22 thousand employees. In Mexico, it maintains a Technical Cooperation Agreement that was signed with the federal government in 1997, to collaborate in sustainable energy projects, protection of the environment and natural resources, especially in the sectors of urban and industrial environmental protection, conservation of the biological diversity and climate change. It also addresses issues of dual education, good governance and strengthening of civil society.
Photo: Animated satellite image of San Miguel de Allende and its different urban development phases in the past few decades.
Q: How would you define sustainable development?
Currently, sustainable refers to a healthy link between the ecosystem and human systems, where the economy and society are integrated with good governance, participation, and equity as well. Therefore, sustainable development is defined as meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. For this reason, I consider it vital to moderate the current growth pressure with a vision in which human beings live together and renounce destroying diversity and ecosystem services. In this sense, it is desirable to generate in the future a model where development includes well-being for human life and nature protection as well.
Q: A lot of people are worried about climate change and their future; would you like to tell us what’s your perspective for the future? Do you think climate change can be mitigated?
Although millions of people know that climate change exists and that something must be done immediately, it is like the noise we hear when we step on the brake pedal of a car. We know that's a warning alert, but we keep putting off car repair. Climate scenarios based on scientific evidence predict huge impacts, fortunately it is possible to reduce the risk through mitigation or adaptation: the first focuses on reducing carbon dioxide emissions through adjustments to energy and transportation systems; the second seeks to reduce vulnerability and boost resilience of climate change in human and natural systems.
The climate emergency is a term named by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) to inform people about this problem, but also to motivate societies to conserve and restore natural spaces as a measure to limit carbon emissions providing one-third of the mitigation effort needed in the next decade.
Because of that we must act by improving processes, consuming responsibly, and traveling in a sustainable way.
Q: In San Miguel de Allende there are worries about water due to the ongoing drought and water contamination, is it related to climate change, if so, how?
San Miguel is recognized by its productive position, either as a tourist destination, as an agricultural producer, and lately as an industrial pole. In recent decades, this economic impulse has generated a growing demand for productive use, expanding the urban land between 1997 and 2016 by 7 times (according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography), and with it, the pressure for water. It is a fact that the temperature in the state of Guanajuato has already increased by one degree Celsius causing long droughts and that the rains have decreased their frequency during the year. Water contamination is not a problem directly related to climate change, but the drought and therefore the availability of water that affects the region it is.
Q: How do you think climate change will impact water access or contamination issues in San Miguel moving forward?
Among the expected impacts associated with climate change are: the change in rainfall patterns that cause constant flooding; the rainy season will last less, but the amount of rain will be greater; at the same time there will be an increase in the periodicity of droughts, which is already affecting patterns of water availability. In this sense, the aquifer in SMA manifests overexploitation and when the liquid is extracted deeper it is likely to mix with heavy minerals, as Caminos de Agua has pointed out. It is evident that if more water is extracted than the aquifer is capable of recharging, the solutions to avoid shortages will be increasingly expensive. According with the Analysis of the economic risk caused by climate change for SMA prepared by GIZ Mexico, by 2060 the price for water in SMA will be 192% more expensive than now.
Q: A lot of people are worried about the new residential developments being built and the growth of the urban area since they see this as the main culprits when it comes to water availability. Is it not possible to continue growing? Should people looking to buy houses or move to San Miguel be concerned about this?
According to official information, urban expansion in SMA detonated considerably from the year 2000, and in the last two decades it has even continued towards the periphery of the city creating new neighborhoods. Current urban planning has contemplated that future growth be generated towards the access road corridors to the town, on the roads to Celaya, Querétaro, and Dolores Hidalgo. Founded on the Analysis of the economic risk caused by climate change for SMA, an increase in the arrival of tourists and the supply of accommodation is projected for the next decades, based on recent trends. In this sense, SMA will face changes in the climate related to the increase in temperature and the decrease in rainfall, which could magnify the current water stress and thus put the tourism business at risk. For this reason, it is desirable that the authorities accelerate the adaptation actions that are currently being carried out. As said before, there is comprehension about climate change impacts, but there’s a need to move forward together state and municipal governments with social and private sectors.
Q: How do you envision the environmental future of San Miguel de Allende – and the surrounding region – if things don’t change regarding our approach to climate change mitigation?
The current Urban Development Municipal Plan indicates more expansion of the city in the future. So, it is necessary that new construction be carried out under sustainability criteria. GIZ Mexico has developed the Guide for Climate Change Investments to support investors and builders in adapting projects from their inception. In this way, buildings and infrastructure could be built away from rain runoff, riverbeds, slopes, using nature as protection, capturing rainwater, and integrating eco-technologies as well as alternative energies. All these solutions could provide the opportunity to anticipate and reduce the risk of climate change from [the] planning [stage].
Q: Should we start adapting our city for future climate-related disruptions?
SMA is fortunate to have residents, businessmen, NGO's, and public servants who understand the dimension of climate change, especially because they have directly perceived the impact of this phenomenon. Year after year, it gets hotter and hotter, one year it is one with the biggest fires or the next one with the largest flooding, etc. People are aware that the current damages are not like those of the past. Anyone can see the difference.
For this reason, it is important to mention that some actions are being carried out by different sectors and jointly. The Adaptur program has served as a bridge to integrate diverse strategies and actions in a single agenda, especially to recognize the problem and towards the generation of EbA [Ecosystem-based Adaptation] measures. Although it is a long way to reduce the risk of climate change, in SMA there is political will and sensitivity of the private sector, which is reinforced with the participation of NGOs and society itself.
There are previous efforts, but I can point out that since 2019 to date, at least four million pesos of public and private resources have been invested in soil restoration and reforestation in more than a thousand hectares. Especially during the most critical months of the pandemic in 2020, that investment in EbA measures paid for the work of around 150 people in the communities. I am sure that very soon, much more money will be spent on conserving nature to prevent disasters.
Q: What kind of weather and climate events can we expect in the future of our region?
In SMA, natural resources and the services that nature provides, such as water and oxygen, are already being affected by climate change. According to climate scenarios of the National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change (INECC, by its acronym in Spanish), the temperature is highly likely to rise even more, and if mitigation and adaptation actions are not taken, the following could occur:
Increase in the quantity and intensity of hydrometeorological phenomena
Flooding rivers
Landslides due to slope instability
Drought and water scarcity
Loss of biodiversity and natural capital
Increase in diseases
Q: San Miguel’s most important economic engine is tourism. How will the tourism industry be affected by climate change?
The biodiversity, population, all the productive sectors, and the infrastructure of SMA [will] be harmed because of climate change. Specifically, the tourism sector could face serious economic losses due to flooding or landslides when atypical rains occur. Also, in daily operation due to the increase in temperature, [the tourism sector] could pay much more money for water, electricity, or supplies. The value of the business would decline, and the reputation of the destination would be seriously damaged. In Mexico, there is already a clear example of damage caused by sargassum [an algae] on the beaches of Cancun, which causes booking cancellations with enormous economic losses.
Q: What is the tourism industry’s responsibility in terms of climate change? Water availability?
The World Tourism Organization recognizes that tourism activity emits five percent of all greenhouse gases emissions. It [may not] seem like much if we compare it with other productive areas, but the carbon footprint of air and land transport, as well as the energy consumed by air conditioning, heating, cooling, and swimming pools in hotels, restaurants and spas are a major issue. [Additionally], hotels identify that tourists consume three times more water than a city resident, which represents a big difficulty for businesses and tourist destinations, especially for places where the total consumption of water is more than the recharge capacity of the aquifer.
Q: With global warming and increasing industrial, agricultural, and other human related activities, what kind of health issues can we expect in a warmer world?
The impacts on human health from climate change are extensive and can range from simple heat exhaustion and heat stroke to heart failure. By reducing the protection of the ozone layer, we will be more exposed to ultraviolet rays that cause skin cancer, headaches, and respiratory diseases. [Further], fires caused by droughts are a major source of pollution that poisons the air and can cause severe damage to the lungs. Also, the change in weather patterns causes lengthened pollination processes, and thus more episodes of allergies and asthma are generated.
A well-known effect is vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, zika, and chikungunya, when carrier insects have found new geographic areas to survive. Also, the increasingly frequent torrential rains cause floods and, with it, the overflow of sewage, generating gastrointestinal diseases. One more effect of changes in temperature and rainfall will be the decrease in nutrients in crops, which will cause anemia and damage to vital organs. [In other areas], the loss of biodiversity because of climate change can cause the disappearance of species, problems in their habitat, and thus lead to phenomena such as zoonosis that have given rise to pandemics such as COVID-19.
Q: The majority of the world population live in cities, including in countries like Mexico, do you think that our urban future is at stake in small cities like San Miguel?
According to the UN, 55% of the world population lives in cities, and trends indicate that 68% will do so in 2050. Therefore, sustainable development is the solution for populations, regardless of their size, to comply with guarantees such as jobs, health, education, and a safe environment. Where those conditions exist, people will go. If SMA in the upcoming years will provide those conditions, people will live here.
Q: If you had the superpower of fixing things as perfectly as possible, how would you see an effective climate change mitigation strategy for cities like San Miguel?
The superpower for which I lean, is to restore the damage that has been done to nature, recovering soils, reforesting the mountains, and bringing water to the subsoil. These measures will reduce the risk to the beautiful city of SMA. Our obligation is to balance the current pressure of growth with a vision of sustainable development in the future, giving a new opportunity to the human being to live without harming nature.